emnify & Berg Insight: Original Research
The Future of Connected Home Energy
As Home Energy Management Systems become more prevalent, we help you understand how you can create smart, profitable home energy solutions.
What can you find in this white paper?
Drawing on original research and practical experience, this white paper offers insights on:
- Key challenges in modernizing outdated grid infrastructure while integrating new technologies.
- A framework for interoperability that aligns HEMS, EV chargers, and battery storage with evolving market demands.
- Core principles of designing multi-network connectivity for reliable performance, even during outages.
- Essential metrics to track product success and homeowner adoption.
- Practical advice for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to navigate policy shifts, bundle incentives, and deliver long-term value in a rapidly changing energy landscape.
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01
Introduction
Approximately one-fourth of total energy consumption in North America and Europe comes from the residential sector. This consumption is expected to increase both in absolute terms and as a percentage of total energy use due to the rapid growth in the adoption of electric cars and heat pumps in the coming years. Solutions that enable homeowners to reduce their energy consumption and increase the share coming from renewable sources play a vital role in transitioning to carbon neutrality and mitigating climate change. For this reason, governments in Europe and North America have introduced various incentives and subsidies specifically directed at the residential market to stimulate investments in renewable energy sources and energy optimisation solutions, such as Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS). Decentralised energy systems also enhance resilience against power outages, caused by wildfires, storms, earthquakes and other natural disasters.
Figure 1: Final energy consumption by sector (EU 2022)
Source: Eurostat
This white paper explores the key advantages of HEMS and how large electrical loads in the home such as EV chargers, heat pumps, ACs, and major appliances can be managed and optimised using IoT solutions. Connectivity adds several conveniences for homeowners and enables new applications to be created, benefitting utility companies, EV charging operators and other stakeholders part of the value chain. For some of these applications, a reliable connection between the HEMS and the cloud will be essential.
02
State of the market
The way electricity is generated, distributed and consumed is undergoing a major transformation. Outdated grid infrastructure, higher and more volatile electricity consumption, and the integration of unpredictable renewable energy sources are driving the need for advanced home energy solutions. Fuelled by government subsidies, utility demand response programmes, and homeowners’ desire to save costs, reduce their CO2 emissions and become energy resilient, the market is set for significant growth for many years ahead.
A new revolutionary energy system is emerging
The current energy system relies heavily on centralised power plants that supply households and businesses with electricity through a large grid infrastructure. A new decentralised energy system is emerging, consisting of solar PV panels, battery storage systems and cloud-based platforms to monitor and control the system remotely. These are the three core components of a Home Energy Management System (HEMS). A more comprehensive HEMS also integrates EV chargers, heat pumps and air conditioners, home appliances and other connected products and systems within the home. To fit into these emerging decentralized systems, it is important for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and device manufacturers to future-proof their products by ensuring interoperability with products from other vendors, e.g., through open communication protocols and modular design.
Figure 2: Home energy management system infrastructure
When households can both generate and store their electricity for later use, they become less dependent on the electricity grid and better prepared for power outages. However, becoming completely independent from the grid is difficult and costly. The capacity of residential solar PV systems installed on rooftops is most often limited and does not cover the household’s electricity needs throughout the entire year. As a result, the vast majority of households still need electricity from the grid to some extent, especially during the winter when there is less sunlight and the household’s electricity needs are greater. Therefore, optimising the use of self-generated electricity is necessary. Connected systems and cloud-based platforms enable households to manage their electricity usage more efficiently. This becomes even more important when large electrical loads, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, are added to the home.
An electric car can significantly increase a household’s electricity consumption. In Europe, the average household consumes about 3,800 kWh of electricity annually. The average person drives approximately 11,300 kilometres per year, and if each kilometre requires 0.2 kWh of electricity, switching to an electric car would add around 2,300 kWh per year. This represents an increase of more than 53 percent for the average household. While the figures can vary substantially across countries and individual households – and not all charging takes place at home – replacing fossil fuel vehicles with electric ones most often results in a substantial increase in household electricity consumption. For EV charger OEMs, understanding these consumption patterns helps tailor features like smart scheduling, demand response compatibility and advanced data analytics for homeowners.
Figure 3: Electricity consumption of the average household with and without an EV
Residential heating systems are also increasingly being electrified, and sales of electric heat pumps have grown significantly in recent years. Replacing a fossil-fuelled heating system with an electric heat pump or water heater can add 2,000–4,000 kWh of electricity consumption per year for the average household. Adding power-hungry devices such as EV chargers and electric heat pumps may in turn require an upgrade of the home’s main fuse and utility service, which can be costly. However, using electricity from a solar PV system or home battery to charge the EV may eliminate the need for such an upgrade. Alternatively, installing a system capable of load management and peak shaving can help manage the increased electrical load without upgrading the utility service.
The existing electricity grid is not designed for today’s use cases
In both Europe and North America, much of the electricity grid infrastructure dates back to the 1960s and 1970s and is now outdated. Investments to improve and modernise the grid have been too low for many years. In addition to this, the energy system was not designed for decentralised power generation and storage nor the high volatility in energy demand and supply.
Figure 4: The duck curve
Most renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and tidal power are intermittent and relatively unpredictable in how much energy they can generate on a given day. Since the electricity demand from households and businesses is relatively constant, this creates imbalances in the electricity grid. These variances in energy supply are becoming more severe as the share of energy coming from renewable sources increases. This is even expected to accelerate as governments around the world promote the use of renewable energy and the reduction of fossil fuels to combat climate change.
Households’ energy consumption patterns are also changing. The adoption of EVs is not only increasing the total electricity consumption but also its volatility. Since cars are often parked near workplaces during the day, the vast majority of home EV charging occurs during the evening and night. Therefore, the strain on the electricity grid increases significantly during late afternoons and evenings when people come home from work and need to charge their vehicles.
Connectivity enhances the value proposition for HEMS and EV chargers
HEMS and EV chargers are typically connected to the Internet via Ethernet, Wi-Fi or cellular networks, enabling users to control and monitor their system remotely. HEMS also gain access to real-time data on electricity prices, weather forecasts and other information and can automatically adjust the system settings based on this data. For example, the system can receive information on an upcoming storm or other severe weather event and make sure that the home battery is fully charged when the storm hits and potentially causes a power outage.
For homeowners with dynamic electricity tariffs, the system can schedule the operation of heavy loads such as EV charging, heat pumps and home battery charging to times of the day when the electricity price is lower. This can help households to substantially reduce their electricity bill. Being able to initiate EV charging and view the charge status via a mobile app also brings convenience for homeowners. The app can provide immediate alerts on any issues related to the charging, enabling users to quickly resolve them. HEMS and EV charger manufacturers who integrate real-time price data and scheduling features can stand out from competitors and potentially open new revenue streams through premium subscription services. OEMs can position these connectivity-driven features as value-added services that justify higher upfront costs or monthly fees, offering long-term savings for homeowners.
Interoperability will be key to enabling flexible HEMS systems for local markets
In the future, a HEMS will not only consist of a solar PV system, inverter and home battery but also incorporate devices in the home that generate, store and consume electricity. Products from different vendors need to support the same communications protocols so that data can be exchanged between the various devices and be controlled from a unified interface. Ideally, customers will be able to create a best-of-breed solution, combining hardware from various manufacturers and controlling and monitoring their system from any software platform. In addition, homeowners should be able to choose a time-of-use electricity tariff from any energy retail company to optimise electricity consumption and reduce costs. Consumers should also be able to scale their system if their needs change, starting with a solar PV and battery storage system and later adding an EV charger, heat pump or other device to the system. A modular battery storage system also enables homeowners to add additional kWh of battery storage if the electricity needs increase.
Ensuring interoperability between different HEMS hardware and software solutions will be key also for developers of inverters, home batteries, EV chargers, heat pumps, home appliances and other products part of a wider HEMS. The HEMS market is in an early phase and it is not yet clear which applications and features will be most sought-after by consumers. Adding to this, there are big differences between countries when it comes to regulations and incentives in the HEMS market and the energy market as a whole. A feature that is popular in one market may not be used at all in another market. For example, in the Netherlands, the net metering scheme is more generous than in other countries, making it less financially attractive for households to invest in battery storage solutions. Very few Dutch households have a home battery system and developing energy optimisation solutions that includes a home battery may not be successful in the Netherlands. In Germany, the roll-out of smart meters has been slow and the household penetration rate is only about 5 percent. Smart meters are essential for dynamic electricity pricing, a central feature of HEMS solutions. The market dynamics in the nascent HEMS market can change rapidly and it is therefore vital for HEMS product managers to develop solutions that are flexible and adaptable for future applications.
Government subsidies and incentives fuel market growth
The high upfront cost of HEMS is a major barrier for many households. This high cost also extends the payback period of the investment, and in many cases, the continued reliance on grid power is the most financially viable option. Subsidies and tax deductions are therefore vital tools to encourage homeowners to invest in HEMS. Countries in Europe and North America have introduced various programmes and policies to stimulate investments in renewable energy sources and energy optimisation solutions, including policies directed to the residential market. Since the residential market accounts for a large share of total global electricity consumption, it is an important focus for policymakers. EV charger and battery storage manufacturers can consider bundling financing deals or co-marketing with installers to help homeowners take advantage of existing subsidies, thus reducing sticker shock.
In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was signed into law in mid-2022. With US$ 369 billion set aside for climate-related investments, the law offers thousands of dollars in rebates and tax incentives for Americans who acquire solar PV systems, battery storage systems, electric vehicles, heat pumps, electrical panels and other products and systems that reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Part of the IRA is the Residential Clean Energy credit, which provides a 30 percent tax reduction for solar PV systems and battery storage installations. The credit is available until 2032.
There are also state-level incentives available for homeowners. In California, for example, the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) provides rebates of US$ 150-200 per kWh of storage capacity when installing a home battery system into a solar PV system. This covers about 15-20 percent of the total home battery cost. The IRA is set to continue until 2032 which makes it possible for OEMs to plan multi-year product roadmaps and ensure that features align with ongoing incentives.
In Europe, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU plan in May 2022 as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year. The initiative aims to rapidly reduce the EU member countries’ dependence on Russian energy. Achieving this goal requires massive investments and reforms, with approximately € 300 billion needed for the transition – comprising € 72 billion in grants and € 225 billion in loans. About 95 percent of this financing will go toward accelerating and scaling up the clean energy transition.
A key component of REPowerEU is the EU Solar Energy Strategy, which includes various incentives and obligations to accelerate the installation of solar panels on buildings. While REPowerEU sets broad goals, each EU member state implements its own local incentives. Device manufacturers should therefore identify the top markets and tailor product offerings accordingly. In many EU countries, there are various subsidies and tax benefits available for home battery storage equipment and installation. In Sweden, for example, homeowners can deduct up to 50 percent (maximum of around € 4,400) of the battery installation and material costs from their income tax when installing a home battery with a solar PV system.
Subsidies for EVs and EV chargers are available in most Western countries. In North America, regulations and incentives to promote EV charging infrastructure are implemented on local, state and federal levels. The Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Tax Credit (AFITC) is a federal tax grant currently active in the US. Households can get a tax credit of 30 percent on charging equipment up to US$ 1,000. In Europe, regulations and incentives are formulated both on the EU, national and local levels. The incentives on national levels vary across the countries in Europe. Most of the countries in the region offer a tax benefit for EVs and EV chargers, but some also have grants or bonus payments. In the UK, for example, the Electric Vehicle Homecharge Scheme (EVHS) provides financial support of up to £ 350 for home charging equipment.
Net metering and feed-in-tariff policy changes alter the incentives for HEMS installations
Without a battery storage system, electricity generated from a solar PV system must be consumed immediately. The highest electricity output is reached between midday and early afternoon – times when households' electricity consumption is typically lower. Therefore, many households do not consume all the electricity their solar PV systems generate. In grid-connected solar PV systems, the surplus electricity can be fed back into the grid for use by other electricity customers, preventing waste. Utility companies typically compensate households for the electricity they supply back to the grid. There are two main forms of compensation, net metering and Feed-in-Tariffs (FiT). In net metering schemes, households receive credits that are used when importing electricity from the grid. Households are thus only billed for the net electricity they consume. In FiT schemes, the utility company compensates the household based on a fixed price. FiTs incentivise households to install larger systems that generate more surplus electricity.
The availability of net metering or FiT programmes and the compensation rate varies between countries, regions and utility companies. A high feed-in compensation rate incentivises households to install solar PV systems. However, it may discourage investments in battery storage solutions. Since the electricity tariff is most often lower during the night, it can be better from a financial perspective to buy electricity from the grid during the night rather than using electricity stored in a battery (i.e. given that dynamic electricity tariffs are available). In mature markets, net metering and FiTs have been reduced for new solar PV installations. Most households with solar PV systems are not completely grid-independent but need grid power during parts of the day, especially in the winter. If net metering or FiTs programmes are too generous, households with solar PV systems do not pay for the full cost of service to use the grid. The cost thus needs to be paid by other electricity customers that do not have a solar PV system.
As more solar PV systems are installed in a region, this can become an issue. In California, for example, a new net metering programme (NEM 3.0) was implemented in April 2023. NEM 3.0 reduces the net metering compensation rate by about 75 percent compared to NEM 2.0. The
payback period for a solar PV installation in California thus increases from about 5–6 years to about 9–10 years. This makes investments in home battery storage solutions more attractive from a financial perspective. OEMs can capitalise on the shift in policy by tailoring marketing to highlight ROI gains, offer integrated financing solutions or develop flexible software that supports time-of-use optimization.
The adoption of HEMS and EV chargers will grow substantially over the next five years
In 2023, the solar industry as a whole in Europe and North America was negatively impacted by higher interest rates, causing a lower-than-anticipated demand for new solar PV systems. However, the adoption of HEMS grew substantially in 2023 due to several reasons, including a number of policy changes in key markets that have made investments in HEMS more attractive for homeowners.
At the end of 2023, there were an estimated 2.2 million HEMS installed in European homes. An estimated 1.1 million systems were added to the installed base in 2023. This figure includes both new installations of solar PV + battery storage systems as well as installations of battery storage systems in existing solar PV systems (i.e. retrofits). The penetration rate is still very low in Europe, at around 1.8 percent. Germany is by far the leading market, accounting for more than half of the installed base and shipments in Europe in 2023. Other emerging European markets include Spain, Italy, France and the Netherlands. Growing at a CAGR of 36.7 percent, the installed base of HEMS in Europe is estimated to reach 10.3 million systems at the end of 2028. This corresponds to a penetration rate of 8.2 percent.
Figure 5: Installed base of HEMS in Europe and North America (2023–2028)
In North America, an estimated 600,000 HEMS were installed at the end of 2023. Shipments, including both new installations and retrofits, reached 210,000 systems during the year. The US is estimated to account for about 95 percent of the North American market while Canada accounts for about 5 percent. California, Texas and Hawaii are some of the largest HEMS markets in the US, driven by strong incentives, high electricity costs and grid-reliability issues. Growing at a CAGR of 38.3 percent, the installed base of HEMS in North America is estimated to reach 3.0 million systems at the end of 2028. This corresponds to a penetration rate of 2.5 percent.
Figure 6: Installed base of residential EV charging points in Europe and NA (2023–2028)
The number of EV charging points installed in residential settings, i.e. detached houses and multi-dwelling units, has grown rapidly in the past few years and is expected to continue to grow substantially in the coming years. At the end of 2023, there were an estimated 4.22 million residential EV charging points installed in Europe. The corresponding number for North America was 2.25 million charging points. The number of EV charging points is estimated to grow by a CAGR of 27.4 percent in Europe and 35.3 percent in North America from 2023 to 2028.
03
Shaping the future of
Home Energy Management
Several trends are impacting the home energy management market, potentially altering market conditions for solution providers and associated players in the coming years. Technological advancements like decentralised energy systems, dynamic electricity tariffs, Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), and Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) technology are transforming how homeowners manage energy. These shifts may, in the long term, create a new playing field characterised by different market dynamics.
Dynamic electricity tariffs and load management save costs for homeowners and utilities
One of the main challenges for energy utilities is managing variations in electricity demand and supply on daily and seasonal bases. Utilities need to maintain sufficient capacity to ensure electricity can be supplied at all times. Since electric energy cannot be easily stored, utility companies typically try to match demand and supply by adjusting the output of their power plants. This can involve turning generating units on or off or importing power during periods of high demand. However, these measures can be costly, as some units are expensive to operate, and there are limits to what can be achieved. Some generating units take a long time to reach full power, and sometimes demand exceeds the total capacity of the power plants.
Utilities therefore also try to manage the demand side. This is achieved by incentivising homeowners and other consumers to reduce their overall electricity use and shift most of their consumption to times when demand is generally lower. Dynamic electricity tariffs are a common way to accomplish this. By charging customers higher rates during peak demand periods and lower rates when demand is low, consumers are encouraged to adjust their behaviour and run electricity-intensive systems in the home – such as heating, appliances and EV chargers – at off- peak times. A system that automatically adjusts power consumption based on price is preferred, as manually adjusting every electric device in the home would be too cumbersome.
Battery storage systems allow homeowners to take full advantage of dynamic price tariffs by charging the battery with electricity from the grid at night and use it during the day, thereby reducing or eliminating daytime grid usage. Homeowners are not likely to change electricity consumption behaviour if they have a flat electricity tariff. Therefore, dynamic electricity tariffs are
essential. However, these types of tariffs are not available for all consumers in North America and Europe. Utilities find them more complex to administer, and implementation may require an upgrade of the household electricity meter.
Adding power-hungry devices such as EV chargers and electric heat pumps may require a costly upgrade of the home’s main fuse and utility service as the peak load increases if these systems run at the same time. However, using a system capable of load management and peak shaving can help manage the increased electrical load. This can be done by throttling the power supplied to the loads or using power from a home battery at times when the electricity need is greater. Smart electrical panels and connected EV chargers, heat pumps and other systems in the home can include intelligent load management capabilities that automatically ensure that the peak load is reduced.
Figure 7: Virtual Power Plant
Virtual Power Plants enable flexible management of both electricity supply and demand
Intermittent resources such as wind, solar and tidal power are relatively unpredictable and create imbalances in the electricity grid. As the share of energy coming from renewable sources increases and as households’ and commercial facilities’ energy consumption patterns change, it becomes increasingly important for utilities to have tools to cope with these imbalances. Utilities may use multiple strategies to address these issues, including offering dynamic electricity tariffs or other demand response incentives.
Another strategy is the use of Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), where cloud-connected distributed energy resources (DERs) are aggregated and managed as a single system from a central point. DERs include solar PV systems, energy storage systems, generators, EV chargers, heat pumps and other small-scale systems that can generate and store energy or can be controlled to consume energy at a particular time. While traditional demand response programmes manage energy consumption, VPPs can also manage the supply side by releasing energy stored in batteries into the grid and thus increase the supply of energy when needed.
As more solar PV systems, energy storage systems and other DERs are being installed and connected to the grid, the aggregated power from these systems increases. This makes VPPs more powerful. In the future, VPPs may also utilise the batteries in EVs, enabling access to a massive resource.
EV batteries to power the home using Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) technology
Future home energy management systems are likely to utilise the batteries in electric vehicles as extra backup power or even replace home batteries altogether. Vehicle-to-Home (V2H) refers to systems where the vehicle can send power from its battery to the home. This requires an EV charger that features bi-directional charging and communications capabilities, covered in standards like ISO 15118 and OCPP 2.0.1. It may also require an upgrade of the home’s electric system to enable disconnection from the grid. Bi-directional charging functionality is starting to be introduced in new chargers. For example, Ford Charge Station Pro is a bi-directional home charging station launched in 2022 that works with the automaker's new F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. The car can send power back to power the home, another vehicle or any other electric device. Car makers like Nissan, Mitsubishi and Volkswagen have also launched models with V2H capabilities.
An electric car battery is very similar to a home battery but typically has a capacity of up to ten times larger. EVs have commonly a battery capacity of about 70–100 kWh, while residential battery storage systems typically have a capacity of 5–15 kWh. Multiple home batteries can be installed together to create a larger system. Due to their large size, the batteries in EVs can power a home for several days in case of a grid power outage, whereas home batteries can typically only power the home for one day. As EV adoption increases and bi-directional charging becomes more commonplace, the need for home batteries might decrease. However, since cars are not always stationary at home, there will still likely be a need for home batteries.
There is also a risk that the lifetime of the electric car battery is reduced if it is frequently being used to power the home, as the battery degrades with every charge cycle. EV battery warranties may not be applicable if it is used for other applications other than vehicle propulsion. Replacing an EV battery is often very costly, so EV owners may be reluctant to use their vehicle’s battery to power the home. OEMs will have to design solutions that minimize battery degradation, e.g., by limiting discharge cycles or providing optional settings for partial discharge only.
Why multi-network connectivity is key for reliable HEMS services
Several US states and European countries frequently experience severe weather events that lead to power grid outages and loss of Internet access. Additionally, connectivity can also be interrupted by a technical failure at the Internet Service Provider’s end, network congestion or router issues. Many new technologies and applications within the HEMS market rely on a stable and reliable connection to the cloud and backend servers.
Creating a decentralised energy system and Virtual Power Plant (VPP) requires real-time data on electricity production, storage, and consumption from each participating household to maintain system stability and minimise downtime. Dynamic electricity tariffs, which change hourly, depend on timely updates of electricity prices. Similarly, if an electric vehicle (EV) battery is used to power the home or as part of a VPP, it is essential to have updated information on electricity prices, weather forecasts, and other data points. Therefore, a backup to fixed and Wi-Fi connections is needed. IoT technologies that utilise mobile and satellite networks provide the most reliable backup solution.
EV chargers commonly feature some type of connectivity, such as cellular, Wi-Fi or fixed connectivity. In a private setting, cellular connectivity offers distinct benefits to other options. If a CPO is responsible for the charging station, connecting it with cellular connectivity removes potential limitations and uncertainties related to using a third-party network. Wi-Fi coverage may be limited or easily disrupted at the installation site and wired connections may incur additional costs. Customers may also not prioritise improving Wi-Fi coverage as few other devices need a connection where EV chargers are installed. Cellular connectivity enables the chargers to be installed where they are most useful to the driver and not where connectivity is available. Additionally, it offers a more reliable and independent connection to the charger, which helps improve the service level.
While cellular connectivity is an essential enabler, it must be further optimised for coverage and performance. For HEMS and EV charging OEMs and installers, there are multiple benefits of multi-network connectivity. A single SIM that can access multiple networks in each location eliminates the need to test different SIMs and individual networks at each installation point. Instead, providers can deploy the same SIM in any device, knowing it will automatically connect to the best available network no matter where it goes in the world.
04
Conclusions
emnify is the leading IoT connectivity partner to the innovators building our connected world. Founded in 2014, emnify developed the industry’s first cloud-native, global connectivity – the SuperNetwork. Our unique approach to IoT connectivity, coupled with our comprehensive connectivity management platform and services, ensures seamless data exchange between devices, cloud environments, and IoT applications.
Headquartered in Berlin, with offices in the US, Brazil and the Philippines, emnify is the global provider of IoT connectivity for thousands of enterprises worldwide. Our solution connects millions of devices across all industries including fleet management, consumer electronics, logistics, agriculture, environmental monitoring, smart buildings, retail, and beyond. Working with our customers, we connect the physical world with the digital world in a way that has real impact on how we work and live.
Berg Insight is an independent industry analyst and consulting firm, providing research, analysis and consulting services to clients in the areas of IoT and digital technologies. Our analysts possess deep expertise in major IoT verticals such as fleet management, automotive telematics, smart metering, smart homes, mHealth and connected industry. Founded in 2004, we operate on a global basis from our head office in Sweden.
© 2025 Berg Insight AB. All rights reserved. Berg Insight is an independent producer of market analysis and this Berg Insight product is the result of objective research by Berg Insight staff. The opinions of Berg Insight and its analysts on any subject are continuously revised based on the most current data available. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Berg Insight disclaims all warranties, express or implied, with respect to this research, including any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
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